Balancing Act: Enrollment Modeling & Strategic Planning for High-Demand Graduate Programs in Resource-Constrained Environments

Overview: Our presentation examines the strategic reallocation of resources in higher education institutions facing enrollment challenges and budget constraints. We analyze the tension between maintaining undergraduate instructional capacity and expanding high-demand graduate programs. Our research focuses on our campus graduate programs where qualified applicants are being turned away due to capacity limitations. We propose a model for calculating the optimal student-faculty ratio (SFR) to achieve financial sustainability in graduate education. This model considers faculty costs, differential tuition rates for in-state and out-of-state students, and program-specific yield rates. We assess the potential for strategic growth in these programs by analyzing application-to-acceptance ratios, enrollment trends, waitlist numbers, and course fill rates. Our findings suggest that targeted expansion of high-demand graduate programs could offset declining undergraduate enrollment and diversify the student body. We argue that this approach may be particularly effective in attracting lifelong learners and professionals in urban areas, potentially mitigating demographic challenges affecting undergraduate enrollment. This research contributes to the broader discourse on strategic planning in higher education, offering a data-driven approach to resource allocation that balances institutional financial stability with meeting market demand for graduate education.